Myanmar civil war: where things stand

Neither side’s battlefield claims can be independently confirmed. That goes for both the military and the resistance.

Fighting between Myanmar’s military and armed resistance groups continues on several fronts, according to local media, monitoring groups and research institutes. This is a summary of the reported situation as of 21 October 2026. For earlier developments, see our 19 October Myanmar briefing.

Rakhine State

The Arakan Army (AA) holds most of Rakhine State, while the military holds the state capital Sittwe and the coast around Kyaukphyu and Ramree, which it supplies mainly by sea, according to a 20 October paper by Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

The Development Media Group (DMG) reported on 15 October that the AA had taken nine military outposts on the edge of Sittwe. DVB reported on 19 October that AA positions were about four miles from a military base there.

Since 7 October the military has attempted amphibious landings on Nga Pyi Island. The Irrawaddy reported that the counteroffensive had stalled. The opposition-aligned outlet m.CDM said on 20 October that about 40 soldiers had been killed, about 20 captured and a warship destroyed. Those figures have not been independently verified.

Kachin and northern Shan

The Burma News International (BNI) network reported on 3 October that a coalition led by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) was fighting in five townships in Kachin State, including Bhamo and Hpakant, and in Momeik in northern Shan State. The military is trying to retake parts of Bhamo, and DVB reported clashes on 8 and 9 October on the Momeik–Twinnge road.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) returned Momeik and Mogok to the military in late 2025 under a ceasefire brokered by China. On 13 October, a party that took part in the military government’s election asked a visiting Chinese delegation to push the TNLA and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) out of towns they hold, Shwe Phee Myay reported.

Central Myanmar

Thousands of people are fleeing Myaing Township in Magway Region as military reinforcements move toward oilfields that resistance forces have held since 2022, The Irrawaddy reported on 20 October. Myanmar Now reported that military airstrikes in Magway, Mandalay and Chin killed 16 civilians in a single day around 18 October.

Civilians

The rights group Progressive Voice recorded 145 incidents between 9 and 15 October, including 25 airstrikes, in which 37 civilians were killed, 78 injured and 37 arrested.

ACAPS said on 14 October that at least 70 civilians had been killed in Rakhine State between the escalation in early September and 11 October. An airstrike on a market in Kyauktaw on 28 September killed an estimated 50 people, according to Al Jazeera and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said on 13 July that nearly 3.8 million people were displaced and more than 16 million were in need of humanitarian assistance. The UN refugee agency UNHCR put the number of displaced at 3.8 million as of 31 August. ACAPS said floods in Tanintharyi Region since late September had killed at least 42 people.

Politics

Min Aung Hlaing became president in April after an election held between December and January from which major opposition parties were barred, Al Jazeera reported. On 9 July, parliament voted for a motion against ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus. The Irrawaddy reported on 15 October that the government had set up an “ASEAN Affairs” committee.

On 15 October, the anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), Min Aung Hlaing invited the Karen National Union (KNU), the Chin National Front (CNF) and the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front (ABSDF) to talks and urged People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) to lay down their arms, according to Progressive Voice.

International

Malaysia hosted Min Aung Hlaing on 7 October and promised to help Myanmar back into ASEAN, Al Jazeera reported. Malaysia was the fifth ASEAN member to host him, after Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Singapore and Timor-Leste reportedly oppose a return. The Philippines, which chairs ASEAN this year, has said the Five-Point Consensus failed.

Reuters, as cited by Al Jazeera, reported that the United States and Myanmar’s government have held direct talks on scam centres. A US official met the military government on 15 and 16 September, and a detained American was released afterwards, according to CSIS. On 14 October, six US lawmakers urged continued backing for Myanmar’s anti-junta ambassador at the United Nations.

Min Aung Hlaing has visited China, India and Russia since April. Analysts cited by Al Jazeera say China, India and Thailand are pushing for recognition of his government.