Myanmar briefing: fighting near Sittwe, deadly airstrikes and a push to return to ASEAN

Truth Network Daily’s weekly Myanmar briefing covers developments reported up to 10pm GMT on Sunday 18 October 2026. Claims by the warring sides could not be independently verified.

Latest developments

• Fighting near Sittwe: The military has tried to land troops by boat on Nga Pyi island near Sittwe, the Rakhine State capital, since 7 October, The Irrawaddy reported. Development Media Group (DMG) reported on 15 October, citing military sources, that the Arakan Army (AA) had captured nine outposts near Sittwe.
• Airstrike in Mandalay region: A military airstrike on a village in Yesagyo township on 17 October killed 11 civilians, including six women and two children, a resistance fighter told AFP. The military could not be reached for comment, AFP said.
• New defence minister: Lieutenant General Yar Pyae, head of the government’s peace negotiation committee (NSPNC), became defence minister on 14 October, Eleven Myanmar reported.
• ASEAN push: A new government ASEAN Affairs Committee, chaired by Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe, met for the first time on 13 October, seeking Myanmar’s full reintegration into the bloc, The Irrawaddy reported.

Key developments

The AA controls all of Rakhine State except Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung townships, as well as Paletwa township in neighbouring Chin State, according to The Irrawaddy. The research group ISP-Myanmar said the military began an offensive on 4 September with about 2,000 troops in seven columns, and that the AA had not lost territory as of early October. The International Crisis Group said on 7 October that the ground offensive had stalled and the military had stepped up airstrikes.

On 28 September, an airstrike near a market in Kyauktaw township killed at least 49 people, the Associated Press reported; the AA put the toll at 50 dead and 58 injured. The UN human rights office called it one of the deadliest such attacks. The military did not comment; it has previously said it strikes only legitimate military targets and calls armed resistance groups terrorists, AP reported.

In the north, clashes with the Kachin Independence Army continued in six townships including Bhamo and Hpakant, BNI Multimedia Group reported on 3 October.

Humanitarian impact

• Displacement: UNHCR recorded 4,033,100 internally displaced people in Myanmar as of 31 August 2026, and 1,638,800 Myanmar refugees and asylum-seekers abroad as of 30 September, including 1,206,500 in Bangladesh.
• Hunger: The World Food Programme (WFP) says 12.4 million people face acute hunger in 2026, including 1 million at emergency levels. It says it needs US$150 million to assist 1.5 million people.
• Rakhine: ISP-Myanmar said at least 70 civilians had been killed by air and artillery strikes since 4 September, and at least 6,000 displaced. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) said airstrikes on displacement camps in Ponnagyun township in early October killed about eight civilians, DMG reported.
• Overall toll: AAPP said as of 16 October that 8,557 people had been killed by the military since the 2021 coup, 32,192 arrested and 15,083 were still detained. The conflict monitor ACLED estimates more than 100,000 people have been killed in the fighting, AFP reported.

Politics and diplomacy

Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, was elected president by parliament on 3 April 2026 after stepping down as commander-in-chief on 30 March. General Ye Win Oo succeeded him at the head of the armed forces. The military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party won 339 of the 420 seats contested in elections held between December 2025 and January 2026, according to Crisis Group.

The government says it is pursuing peace. State broadcaster Myanmar International TV reported that the NSPNC met signatories of the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement in Yangon on 30 September–1 October and signed agreements on dialogue, regional committees and humanitarian aid. Crisis Group said the government had invited armed groups to talks “without preconditions”, but that the AA had not met its negotiators.

ASEAN has limited Myanmar to non-political representation at its leaders’ summits since October 2021. The government’s new ASEAN committee is seeking full reintegration ahead of the bloc’s summit in Manila, The Irrawaddy reported.

The US Treasury removed sanctions on Theint Win Htet, of a business family linked to the military, the fifth such delisting under the Trump administration, The Irrawaddy reported. The watchdog Justice For Myanmar condemned the move.

Crisis Group said China’s support had strengthened the military’s position, including Chinese-brokered ceasefires with two northern armed groups.

Why it matters, according to officials and experts

• Crisis Group said “the most likely scenario in the near term is a war of attrition in which civilians bear the heaviest cost”.
• ISP-Myanmar said the Rakhine fighting was “taking the shape of a total war” with a “higher risk of atrocities”.
• In June, Crisis Group described the new administration as “military consolidation, not transition”.

Background

Myanmar’s military seized power on 1 February 2021, removing the elected National League for Democracy government and detaining its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. The military cited alleged fraud in the November 2020 election. Opponents formed armed People’s Defence Forces, which fight alongside some ethnic armed groups. In October 2023, an alliance including the AA launched an offensive in northern Shan State; the AA later took control of most of Rakhine. The Gambia’s genocide case against Myanmar over the Rohingya is before the International Court of Justice, and in November 2024 the International Criminal Court prosecutor sought an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing. Myanmar denies genocide.