Myanmar briefing: aid staff leave Sittwe as fighting nears the Rakhine capital; airstrikes reported in Chin, Sagaing and Magway

Neither side’s battlefield claims can be independently confirmed. That applies to claims by the military government and by the resistance groups alike.

This is our twice-weekly summary of the war in Myanmar, based on local media, monitoring groups, UN agencies and research institutes. Figures are as reported by the named sources up to Wednesday 21 October 2026. For the previous summary, see Myanmar civil war: where things stand.

What’s changed since the last briefing

• Staff of several international aid organisations in Sittwe, the Rakhine State capital, have started relocating to Yangon as fighting moves closer to the city, the Development Media Group (DMG) reported on 21 October, citing an aid worker. Some agencies keep caretakers and logistics staff in Sittwe and run operations remotely.
• Local resistance groups and media reported deadly airstrikes in Chin State, Sagaing Region and Magway Region between 16 and 20 October (details below).
• Defence Minister Lieutenant General Yar Pyae said current military operations were aimed at peace, The Irrawaddy reported.

Key developments

Rakhine State. DMG reported heavy fighting near the Shwe Min Gan naval base, on Nga Pyi Island and around the villages of Pardaleik, Tawkan and Kyarmathauk, with Arakan Army (AA) units about four miles from the edge of Sittwe. The military relies on artillery and air support there, DMG said. The Burmese-language outlet PSM Myanmar reported on 21 October that the AA had surrounded more than 50 remaining government soldiers on Nga Pyi Island and pushed back reinforcement landings. The military, which began amphibious landings on the island on 7 October, has not published its own figures.

Chin State. The Chin People’s Union (CPU) said military aircraft dropped more than 110 bombs on 18 and 19 October around the Chaungsone river cargo terminal in Paletwa Township, killing nine civilians, including a six-month-old baby, according to m.CDM and Khonumthung News. The CPU said fighting with the military continues in Mindat and Kanpetlet townships.

Sagaing and Magway. Local reports said six women and girls were killed by a gyrocopter strike and a drone attack on Kwan Chan village in Butalin Township on 20 October, m.CDM reported. The National Unity Government (NUG), the main opposition administration, said an air attack on an internet shop in Yesagyo Township, Magway, on 16 October killed at least 12 people; local media put the toll at 15, The Irrawaddy reported.

Kachin and the north. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and allied forces captured an outpost of the military-aligned Shanni Nationalities Army in Homalin Township, Sagaing, on 18 October, m.CDM reported, citing local military sources. DVB has reported a military counteroffensive since August along the Momeik–Mabein road toward southern Kachin State, where the KIA and the military are fighting for Bhamo. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) are under China-brokered ceasefires.

Humanitarian impact

UN figures published by the UN refugee agency UNHCR put the number of internally displaced people in Myanmar at 4,033,100 as of 31 August 2026. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in July that more than 16 million people needed humanitarian assistance. The rights group Progressive Voice recorded 145 conflict incidents between 9 and 15 October, including 25 airstrikes, in which 37 civilians were killed.

Politics and diplomacy

Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, became president in April after an election held between December and January. On 16 October, at an event marking the 11th anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, he invited the Karen National Union, the Chin National Front and the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front to join his peace process; the government demands that the NUG’s People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) surrender. Yar Pyae said at the event: “Some parts are military actions, while others are steps to achieve peace.”

The NUG welcomed a decision by the Southeast Asia National Human Rights Institutions Forum to expel the government’s Myanmar National Human Rights Commission, m.CDM reported. Several ASEAN members, most recently Malaysia, have hosted Min Aung Hlaing this year.

Why it matters, according to officials and experts

Chong De Xian of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) wrote on 20 October that the military’s hold on Sittwe and Kyaukphyu “increasingly depends on sea access”, and that Kyaukphyu is the coastal end of oil and gas pipelines to China’s Yunnan Province. He said instability on the Rakhine coast could make drug trafficking and Rohingya sea crossings harder to monitor.

Views differ on engaging the government. Thailand has called for “calibrated re-engagement” while keeping ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus as the reference, RSIS noted. The NUG has warned that ASEAN re-engagement risks handing the military government legitimacy, The Irrawaddy reported.

Background

Myanmar’s military seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government on 1 February 2021. Armed resistance followed from PDFs loyal to the NUG and from ethnic armed groups, several of which had fought the central government for decades. Since late 2023 the AA has taken most of Rakhine State and Paletwa in Chin State, according to RSIS. The next briefing is due on Monday.