Israel election exit polls: Likud largest party, but neither bloc projected to reach a 61-seat majority

Exit polls published by Israel’s three main television channels when voting closed at 8pm GMT on Tuesday 27 October (10pm in Israel) project Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party in the 26th Knesset, while the bloc of parties seeking to replace him is projected to win more seats than his bloc. None of the three polls gives either bloc the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

These figures are exit polls, not official results. The Central Elections Committee is counting the votes, and the broadcasters said the projections could change as ballots are counted, particularly for parties close to the 3.25% electoral threshold.

Exit polls by channel

Kan 11 (public broadcaster): Likud 25 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar 21. Bloc projection: anti-Netanyahu bloc 53, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab-led parties 17, according to The Times of Israel’s report of the poll. Kan said the poll would be updated every 30 minutes through the night.

Channel 12: Likud 24, Yashar 22, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad 12, Joint List 11, The Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Ra’am 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 6, Religious Zionism-Zehut 6. Bloc projection: anti-Netanyahu bloc 52, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab-led parties (Joint List and Ra’am) 18, as reported by Ynetnews and The Times of Israel.

Channel 13: Likud 25, Yashar 23, B’Yachad 14, Joint List 10, The Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, Ra’am 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 6, Religious Zionism-Zehut 6. Bloc projection: anti-Netanyahu bloc 53, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab-led parties 17.

Ynetnews reported that both the Channel 12 and Channel 13 exit polls project three smaller parties below the threshold: Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, the Reservists-Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, and the Haredi Public party. The Times of Israel said a combined 17 to 18 seats for Arab-led parties would be a record. Final pre-election polls by the same three channels had placed Yashar ahead of Likud, according to Ynetnews.

Ynetnews also reported that Likud officials pointed to a separate exit poll by pollster Shlomo Filber on Channel 14, which they said indicated a tie between the blocs.

Turnout

The Central Elections Committee said 5,449,277 of 7,331,981 eligible voters had cast ballots by 8pm in Israel (6pm GMT), a turnout of 74.3%. Acting director general Dean Livne said that compared with 66.3% at the same hour in the 2022 election, Anadolu Agency and Ynetnews reported. Ynetnews said it was the highest turnout at that hour since 1988, and that it had already passed the 2022 election’s final turnout of 70.63%. Voters chose among 36 lists at 12,018 polling stations, according to committee data reported by Israel National News.

The committee rejected a request by Likud and several other right-wing parties to extend voting beyond the 10pm closing time, saying “the current circumstances do not justify an extension”, the BBC reported. During the day, Netanyahu posted on social media that high turnout among Arab voters was an “emergency” and a “matter of life or death” for the Israeli right, and called on his supporters to vote, according to the BBC.

What happens next

The BBC reported that official results would start to be published from 10pm GMT, and that about 600,000 absentee ballots, almost all from the military, would not be fully counted until Thursday. Ynetnews reported that more than 650,000 special double-envelope ballots require separate verification, and that committee officials warned the count could continue until Friday morning. According to the BBC, official final results are scheduled to be published at the start of November.

After the results, President Isaac Herzog consults the parliamentary factions and asks the lawmaker he considers most likely to form a government to try to build a coalition. If no majority emerges, Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister while attempts are made to form a government, the BBC reported.

Leaders’ reactions

At about 8:20pm GMT the BBC reported from Yashar’s headquarters in Tel Aviv that supporters were celebrating as the exit polls were shown, but no party representative had yet spoken. No post-poll statements from Netanyahu or Eisenkot had been reported at the time of publication. This story will be updated with the official count and leaders’ statements.

Background: Trump endorses Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s 27 October election; Vance declines to endorse Netanyahu; Netanyahu says Trump is ready to act against Iran “only with me”.