Australian inflation rises to 4.3% in September; markets raise bets on a November rate rise

Australia’s consumer price index rose 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday 28 October. Prices rose 0.8% in September alone and 1.3% over the September quarter.

Housing was the largest contributor, up 5.2% over the year on higher costs for new dwellings and electricity, said Rachael McCririck, the ABS head of price statistics. Transport rose 8.7%, driven by fuel: automotive fuel prices rose 9.4% in September after a 14.8% rise in August, which the ABS attributed to higher world oil prices.

The trimmed mean, a measure of underlying inflation that excludes the biggest price moves, rose 3.6% over the year, the ABS said. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band is 2% to 3%.

The S&P/ASX 200 index gave up an early rally to close down 2.8 points, or 0.03%, at 8,847.3, AAP reported, as rate-sensitive sectors fell and miners and technology stocks limited the losses. The Australian dollar rose to 70.33 US cents from 70.22 cents. ABC News reported that markets put the chance of a rate rise at the Reserve Bank’s meeting on Tuesday 3 November near 90%.

See also: RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser’s comments on the inflation outlook.